[NEWS] Foreign investment in Vietnam continues to grow despite the pandemic

Total foreign direct investment into Vietnam reached US $ 12.33 billion in the first four months of this year, down 14.5% over the same period due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Investment. Investment Agency (FIA).

The figure, however, is much higher than the same period in 2018 and 2017 with $ 5.8 billion and $ 9.2 billion, respectively, the FIA said.

The four-month period witnessed 984 newly licensed foreign investment projects with a total registered capital of 6.78 billion USD, down 9% in the number of projects but up 27% in annual value.

Among them, the powerful LNG project of Lieu Lieu marked the first billion-dollar project in 2020 with an investment of US $ 4 billion, accounting for 59% of the total registered FDI.

Meanwhile, the current 335 projects are allowed to increase investment capital more than 3.07 billion USD, up 46% over the same period last year.

From January to April, foreign investors spent nearly $ 2 billion to buy shares or contribute capital to Vietnamese companies, down 65% from the previous year.
According to the agency, disbursement of foreign investment reached 5.15 billion USD after 4 months or equivalent to 90.4% last year.

Foreign investors committed to pouring capital into 18 fields, of which manufacturing and processing led with nearly 6 billion USD, accounting for 48.4% of total capital. Next is electricity production and distribution (US $ 3.9 billion); wholesale and retail (776 million USD); and real estate ($ 665 million), the FIA said.

Singapore is the country with the largest FDI source because the committed volume accounts for 41% or 5.07 billion USD. Thailand and Japan are runner-ups with $ 1.46 billion and $ 1.16 billion respectively, followed by mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea.

Of the 54 provinces that received foreign investment over a four-month period, the southern Liaoning Province ranked first with $ 4 billion. Ba Ria-Vung Tau province followed with 1.9 billion USD and Ho Chi Minh City ranked third with 1.31 billion USD, followed by Hanoi, Ha Nam and Binh Duong provinces.

Exports of foreign-invested sector increased by 1.5% compared to last year to 55.75 billion USD, accounting for 69.3% of the country’s four-month export value. Meanwhile, the industry’s import value also increased by 3% to 46.32 billion USD, accounting for 58% of import volume nationwide.

Despite the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, this sector has reached a trade surplus of US $ 10.2 billion, according to the FIA.

Research from Standard Chartered predicts that FDI inflows will fall below $ 10 billion this year, with downside risks if virus worries continue within the last half of this year.

Construction activity is likely to decline due to subdued sentiment and declining FDI. Export growth is probably going to slow thanks to lower global demand while import growth can also be moderate with slower growth, keeping the balance of trade in surplus in 2020.

Source: VNS

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[NEWS] Vietnam takes first steps to restart economy

Vietnam has flattened its coronavirus infection curve with a sledgehammer, and after some initial success, it has now begun to reopen its economy.

Zero Deaths from conoravirus

With only 270 confirmed cases and no official virus-related deaths, Vietnam is loosening its lockdown rules in most countries, allowing some businesses to reopen.

There are some skeptics about the low number of infections, due to limited testing in the population: As of April 21, Vietnam tested about 1,881 per million people, compared with about 7,500 in Singapore. However, Vietnam’s approach has won praise from agencies such as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization, and its outbreak is in contrast to Singapore and Indonesia is nearby, where restrictions are being extended as cases continue to spike.

Fred Vietnam has had to deal with SARS, bird flu and various financial crises, said Fred Burke, managing partner at the law firm Baker McKenzie in Ho Chi Minh City, advising the government on foreign investment rules. They have learned that they need to act quickly and thoroughly. This country is very suitable for restoration back.

Trade-War Winner

Vietnam has been a favorite location for foreign investors seeking an alternative manufacturing center for China after escalating trade tensions between the United States and the world’s second largest economy.

Government goals are now being built on that momentum. According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, committed to foreign direct investment rose 7.2% last year, with $ 24.6 billion flowing into production. That helped boost economic growth to 7.02%, the second fastest pace since 2007.

The impact of the virus on China – considered by many foreign companies to be increasingly expensive with an aging population – makes Vietnam look more attractive to businesses, A survey of some group members said they are still reassessing their position in China – Vu Tu Thanh, senior Vietnam representative of the US-Asean Business Council said.

Risks Remain

Japan, Vietnam’s second largest investor in the first quarter with $ 848 million, announced earlier this month that it set aside $ 2.2 billion for the stimulus package to encourage investors. Production moved production out of China. Vietnam will certainly benefit, said Burke, who has been a member of a government council advising on foreign investment administrative reforms.

To be sure, Vietnam is still not out of the forest. Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Dam, chairman of the National Steering Committee for the Prevention and Control of Coronav Virus, warned the country still has a big risk of outbreaks.

It must also prepare for a sustained decline in global demand, with months before factories can start strengthening orders for everything from Nike Inc. shoes. to LG Electronics Inc. home appliances.

According to World Bank data, Vietnam relies heavily on exports – accounting for more than 100% of GDP, which means growth had a push in the first quarter, slowing down to 3.82%. The international monetary fund is expected to weaken by 2.7% for the whole year.

The easing of restrictions does not mean life will return to normal.

For starters, lockout isn’t fully lifted, says Gareth Leather, an economist at Capital econom Ltd. in London, who predicted the contraction of GDP this year. Immediately, the others won back to their pre-crisis habit. The fear of being infected with the virus means that people will continue to practice away from society for a while.

The cost for many residents of the nation’s 96 million people is illustrated by a kilometer-long queue at free ATMs ATM – a semi-automatic distribution center that provides free rice to laid-off and laid-off workers waste.

The government believes that its serious actions to reduce viruses have finally saved the economy from more pain. While factories wait for global demand to return, the country’s domestic economy will begin to revive, said Adam McCarty, chief economist of the Mekong Economics in Hanoi.

How Vietnam has treated this virus is signaling to the rest of the world that it is no longer a developing country, he said. They reported that they had a profound flair in the way they handled problems

Source: VNI

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[Assumptions] Scenarios of economic recovery in Vietnam after the Covid-19 pandemic

Assuming the magnitude of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Vietnam’s economic growth will depend on how long it is possible to control the disease, the degree of disruption to production, and the decrease in consumption demand of market. This pandemic will have the worst impact on services, industry and construction, with less severe impacts on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries.

There are three scenarios for Vietnam’s GDP growth in the coming quarters, When the disease is under control, it is assumed that:

• The Best scenario: The pandemic will end in QII/20, and business activities will return to normal in QIII/20.

• The Normal scenario: Pandemic will end in QIII/20., and business activities will return to normal in QIV/20.

• The Worst scenario: Pandemic will end in QIV/20., and business activities will return to normal in QI/21.

Vietnam’s GDP growth in 3 scenarios:

Regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on industries, the COVID-19 disease estimate will severely disrupt business activities in industry and construction, and services, compared to other industries, at 5% in the first quarter, and 10% in the following quarters. The epidemic will also have a negative impact on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, but to a less serious extent, the reduction could be 2% in Q1 and 5% in subsequent quarters.
It is assumed that the government will support affected businesses after the epidemic ends, with an estimated support level of 5%.

These assumptions are for reference only
and cannot be used to prove
or commit for actual reporting and development

Source: KIS

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[Research] The Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Sectors

1. Pharmaceutical products:
• Enterprises in the pharmaceutical industry are expected to benefit when the demand of the people increases.
• The industry’s raw material supply may be affected by 80-90% of raw materials must be imported, mainly from China and India.

2. Aviation:
• Enterprises in the aviation industry are negatively affected by the sharp decline in passengers.
• However, after the end of the epidemic, the aviation industry is expected to benefit from low oil prices, stimulus packages from the government and strong demand for travel.

3. Bank
In addition to reducing lending rates, service fee exemptions and low credit growth affecting short-term profits, banks will also face the risk of rising bad debts in the medium and long term. term.

4. Real Estate
• Real estate industry is negatively affected by declining demand for office space, resort real estate and condotel.
• In the medium and long term, an oversupply of real estate in many segments is likely to occur.

5. Electrification
• Electricity businesses benefit from falling oil prices.
• Prospects of the electricity industry are evaluated positively due to strong growth in demand.

6. Seaport
• Export activities to China are negatively affected by slowing consumption.
• Port industry prospect is assessed negatively due to oversupply and reduced demand for commercial activities worldwide.

7. Rubber
• The covid-19 epidemic negatively affected the demand for rubber import from China, the largest rubber import market of Vietnam, accounting for over 60% of the proportion.
• While export activities face difficulties, the prospect of rubber industry comes from liquidation of rubber trees and industrial park real estate development.

8. Consumption
• Sales at retail stores may be reduced due to people restricting access to public places to avoid the possibility of infection. However, online shopping, delivery, and delivery activities may increase.
• The medium and long-term prospect of the retail industry is forecasted to be positive, benefiting from the rise of the middle class and rising demand.

9. Seafood
• The Covid-19 epidemic caused disruption of seafood exports to China, one of Vietnam’s main seafood import markets.
• Positive prospects from new generation FTAs ​​such as CPTPP and EVFTA.

10. Textile
• The industry’s raw material supply is affected by still having to import nearly 90% of fabrics from China, Taiwan, Korea and 80% of fibers from the US, West Africa, and India.
• Positive prospects from new generation FTAs ​​such as CPTPP and EVFTA.

11. Steel
• The Covid-19 epidemic has an impact on the steel industry in both production and consumption. Regarding production, prices of some steelmaking materials have tended to increase due to limited supply from China, such as coke, iron ore, electrode coal, refractory bricks … Regarding consumption, many construction works. At home and abroad, the use of steel is stagnant, causing the demand for steel to decline.
• After the Covid-19 epidemic, steel enterprises will face high inventory levels, and the pressure to compete with cheap Chinese steel will flood the post-COVID-19 epidemic.

12. Petroleum
• The oil and gas industry has to cope with the dual effects of the Covid-19 epidemic and the decline in oil prices.
• Oil and gas industry prospect is assessed to be negative due to the impact of the world economic growth slowing down. However, we still leave the possibility of a sharp increase in oil prices thanks to OPEC reaching an agreement to cut production or occurrence of force majeure events such as the oil plant in Saudi Arabia was attacked, or impulsive. Suddenly the US-Iran escalates.

13. Securities
• The sharp drop in stock prices during the Covid-19 epidemic could cause securities companies to experience a decline in revenue and profits, as well as increase the risk of margin lending activities. However, after the epidemic is under control, stock prices are forecast to recover strongly.
• The prospect of the securities industry is assessed to be neutral in the medium and long term due to fierce competition between domestic securities companies and foreign securities companies, superior in size and financial potential, in The context of the stock market continues unpredictably.

14. Insurance

Insurance enterprises may have to increase their compensation costs if the Covid-19 epidemic is widespread. Meanwhile, low Government bond interest rates negatively impacted on the industry profit.

15. Cement
• Covid-19 epidemic caused cement consumption in the domestic market as well as export markets, especially the Chinese market, to plummet.
• Prospects for the cement industry are evaluated as neutral due to low demand for growth. In particular, the construction of infrastructure is slowly implemented, real estate shows signs of slowing down, and residential construction increases slightly.

16. Travel
• The tourism service industry is greatly affected by the declining number of tourists in two major markets, China and South Korea. Specifically, in February, the number of Chinese and Korean tourists to Vietnam decreased by 62% and 16% respectively.
• Tourism industry is expected to recover strongly after the virus is controlled.

17. Cars
Covid-19 epidemic not only reduced the number of customers coming to dealers, but also negatively affected the domestic automobile industry due to the shortage of spare parts. In 2019, Vietnam imported nearly US $ 4 billion of auto parts, of which nearly 18% from China and approximately 29% from South Korea. As for truck manufacture, more than 70% of spare parts are imported from China.

Source: Aseansc

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[News] Ho Chi Minh City attracts US $ 1 billion of FDI

Foreign investment registered in Ho Chi Minh City from the beginning of the year to March 20 was recorded at US $ 1,052 billion, down 33% compared to the same period last year, VietnamPlus report, citing data from the Ho Chi Minh City Statistical Office. .

Of this amount, USD 142.5 million belongs to 290 new foreign direct investment (FDI) projects, down by 50.7% and by 14.2% respectively. Besides, about 46 FDI projects are adjusting their investment capital with an additional 80.8 million USD, up 30.9%.

The government of Ho Chi Minh City also approved to contribute capital and buy shares for 1,342 cases with a total capital of US $ 829.3 million. The Saigon Times, a local media reported.

The retail and wholesale sector attracted the largest amount of foreign investment in the first quarter, with 132 projects registering US $ 91.2 million (accounting for over 60% of new investments). Next is science and technology, with 62 projects worth 18.3 million USD (12.8%); information and communication, with 45 projects worth 9.5 million USD (6.7%); construction, with 12 projects worth 6.8 million USD; and processing and manufacturing, with six projects valued at US $ 5.5 million.

Regarding investing countries, the city welcomes investment from 37 countries and territories. Of these, Singapore has 45 projects worth US $ 39.2 million (27.5%). Meanwhile, Hong Kong invested in 23 projects worth 26.3 million USD (18.4%) and Japan registered 29 projects worth 23.5 million USD (16.5%). %).

Up to 9,462 FDI projects in Ho Chi Minh City remained in operation as of March 20 and have a total registered capital of US $ 47.5 billion.

For local investment, 8,121 businesses with a total capital of VND 95,957 trillion were licensed in Ho Chi Minh City on March 15. Although the number of licenses picked up was 2.2%, the registered capital decreased. 30.7%.

Ho Chi Minh City witnessed 240 enterprises were dissolved as of February 29, down 61.5% from the same period last year. Besides, there were 349 businesses moving out of the city (up 46.8%) and 4,309 other businesses were suspended (up 45.1%).

Source: VNI

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